The Ventriloquist of the year is:
“The most famous ventriloquist… was the famed George Bailey from the first movie, “The Wizard of Oz.”
He was famous for his ability to fool people into thinking they were listening to music when instead they were simply listening to his voice.”
How many “recovery years” have been lost to the recession-induced job loss?
I was going to make this argument on my website in December 2012 when the Great Recession hit, but then I thought I’d better try another way. My post, “What’s the real number of Americans in recovery, and why has it slowed down?” didn’t get much response. But I want to see if anyone really cares. It turns out there’s already a fairly large body of research on this topic, so I thought I’d take a look at some preliminary data. The data I’m relying on is from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.
Using data from the Current Population Survey, CBO estimated in 2010 that the recovery years lost between 1999-2010 to the recession cost a total of 1.039 million jobs. These cost-loss estimates do not account for lost labor force participation — you see the first estimate of that below — they don’t take into account any temporary effects of the recessions (like the one in the 1990s) or the effects of the 2008 financial crisis on demand. Even at the time, these estimates were a bit off in that their estimate of the initial decline in the number of jobs after this recession was closer to 800,000. But it’s an encouraging start, and it confirms pretty well what the Congressional Budget Office says.
The CBO also estimated in July that the recovery years lost in the 2000-2010 recession cost between 800,000 and 1.038 million jobs. The first estimate of these costs, from 2011, came from an analysis by the Urban Institute. That earlier estimate of 800,000 to 1.038 million jobs costs were used in a study called “Unemployment, Recovery, and the Labor Market: Evidence from the Current Population Survey,” by Jason Furman, Jared Bernstein, and Thomas E. Hungerford, released last month by Brookings. That report estimated that those lost recession years were worth between 800,000 and 1.01 million jobs. That works out to about 0.4% or 0.6% of total jobs lost during the recession. And we’re really just talking about jobs here. The
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