If you’re like most people, your first answer might be 16. But a study published Thursday in the journal PLoS One suggests you’re most likely to identify the correct answer as red.
The researchers found that people are more likely to answer a red-colored roulette wheel correctly when it contains only the number 16. In fact, as the number 8 is replaced with 16, the correct answer drops from red to 18.
But the researchers also believe the answer to the red-wheel-correct question may be more complicated — it isn’t the total number of red cards, but whether there are any red cards.
“We think the question is really complicated. It’s sort of a double-reproach question. The first question is do you know that the first number is 8, which is correct? And the second question is, what are the numbers in your set of 15 cards?” said Peter DellaVigna, a psychologist at the University of California, Berkeley who co-authored the study.
In one instance, the first question is “Do you know the number 17?” and the second question is “Do you know that there is at least one red card in your red deck?”
When a red- and blue-colored roulette wheel is paired with 15 card sets, people are more likely to correctly answer the second question, DellaVigna said.
“The first question is ‘Do you know the total number of the cards in your deck?,’ and the second question is ‘Which one of these cards is red?'” he said.
To test whether this was true across any number of sets, participants were first presented with a number from 1 to 15 and told to choose one. Then, they were presented with 15 cards the same number, but in different sets. All of them then had a second question about the size of their own card stacks.
The researchers found that all the sets made participants’ odds of correctly answering the first- and second-question questions drop by 25 percent. Only sets in which the card sizes varied by two or more points were not as effective at reducing guessing.
“In short, having a set of card sizes that you can’t distinguish between increases your chance of answering the correct question. But that doesn’t mean that if you have all 15 set you’re guaranteed to get it wrong by a substantial margin,” DellaVigna said.
For example, participants were offered the roulette wheel as a
how to win playing roulette, can you make money from online roulette, online roulette predictor, online roulette tricks, roulette strategy that works